Analysis of the 2008 Market Crash
Everything Finance, Taxes & IRS, Credit Cards, Retirement & Savings, Debt, Read & Learn 1 Comment »The year of 2008 will be remembered and identified by the worldwide market crash that hit the economies of many countries, big and small. The global financial crisis ruined quite a few large financial firms which resulted in the collapse of thousands of smaller dependent companies and businesses. Combined with the sub prime mortgage crisis, bad debts, lack of liquidity, corruption and poor government control are pointed out as the main reasons for the market dip.
Although the crisis erupted with full power in 2008, its foundation has been started way earlier than that. To begin with, the American consumer has always lived beyond their means. Buying almost any type of commodities is very often associated with obtaining some type of a loan and paying it off within extended period of time. Credit became the foundation of nearly every purchase. Especially when it came to real estate, banks and other lending institutions were quick to provide credit to consumers, basing their decision on the muddy information, provided by mortgage brokers.
On the other side, consumers were happily taking on those mortgages, being under the false impression that prices of property will always rise and that they are making a good investment. They were also easily hooked by the Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) which allowed them to take on a mortgage at a super low rate. The housing market was at its full glory: the USA home ownership rate grew to the record 69.2% (US Census Bureau Report, 2007). In the meantime, those mortgages were pooled and sold to domestic and foreign investment institutions as ‘AAA’ graded CDO’s. Since everyone was buying, demand has increased which naturally led to the increase in supply. Housing is built everywhere, 24/7. When the market reached its tipping point in the middle of 2007, supply became higher than the demand and prices began to decline. Prices quickly dropped by over 20% within less than a year (Standard & Poor’s Home Price Indices, 2008).
At one point, more people were finding themselves in a situation where they had zero or even negative equity in their homes. As a lot of those people took ARM mortgages, their payments were steadily increasing by that time. Many were unable to pay their mortgages. A wave of refinancing attempts and foreclosures made it harder and harder to obtain better financing rates and new loans. By the end of 2007, Nearly 1.3 million US housing properties were in the process of foreclosure (RealtyTrac. US Foreclosure Activity Report, 2008). This further deepened the issue – more and more consumers were unable to meet their repayment obligations, defaulting on their mortgages. People were resorting to withdrawals from their last savings accounts and even cash advances from credit cards. That led to a global bank run in which more than $550 billion dollars were withdrawn from US accounts. Banks were vastly losing their liquid assets. As a result of this, banks went low on cash, their assets disappeared and a liquidity problem developed. This pretty much is what brought down Washington Mutual – consumers feared that the bank is in trouble; they pulled their cash out and left the bank high and dry. The collapse of the Credit Default Swaps (CDS) market boosted the rapidly evolving subprime mortgage crisis even more. The weak regulation of the CDS market allowed for millions of junk swaps to be traded. The above mentioned investors, buying the ‘AAA’ graded pooled mortgages suddenly found themselves holding nearly worthless paper.
As a result of that, bankruptcies were quick to follow. This huge instability in the market had a snowball effect: AIG, the largest US insurer quickly started losing money merely because of the now worthless CDO’s they have insured. It became a vicious cycle: People were failing to pay off their mortgages, their homes were foreclosed; the owners of those failed loans were unable to recover their money so they turned to the insurers of those loans, who quickly run out of finances to pay the insurance on those junk mortgages. The result: consumers are low on cash, banks are low on cash, investors, insurers and banks are low on cash. The liquidity of the market almost doesn’t exist.
The fall of Lehman Brothers Holdings on September 14th, 2008 started a domino effect within the financial world. Many of their investments were foreign-funded, and as a result of that the US mortgage crisis quickly spilled beyond America’s borders. The German branch of Citigroup was heavily stressed by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. The Indonesian stock market suspended trading after a 10% on October 8th of 2008. Thailand, Russian and Ukraine followed. Merrill Lynch was sold to Bank of America. Black Monday turned into the Black Week for the US markets: The Dow Jones fell 456.3 to 8122.2 leading to a 21pc dip, The S&P 500 fell 53.4 to 856.5, a weekly drop of more than 20pc (TMG. Financial crisis: US stock markets suffer worst week on record, 2008). This brings a whole new problem in the financial market: banks close their doors to loans, not just mortgages, credit cards and personal loans but loans to big companies, such as GM, IBM etc. These companies often rely on loans to support their productivity, but with this market seize it is hard for even them to obtain a good credit.
What started as a mortgage crisis in the middle of 2007 has quickly developed into a worldwide financial crisis. The failure of U.S. and European investment banks, insurance firms, mortgage banks and governments to contain and resolve the subprime mortgage crash has allowed for it to spread and grow into a huge, complex financial mess which is now known as the market crash of 2008.
References
Census Bureau Reports on Residential Vacancies and Homeownerships. US Census Bureau. 26 October 2007.
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/qtr307/q307press.pdf
Standard & Poor’s Home Price Indices. Standard & Poor’s S&P/Case-Shiller. New York, November 25, 2008.
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_112555.pdf
US Foreclosure Activity Report. RealtyTrac. Irvine, January 29, 2008.
http://www.realtytrac.com/ContentManagement/pressrelease.aspx?ChannelID=9&ItemID=3988&accnt=64847
Financial crisis: US stock markets suffer worst week on record. Telegraph Media Group Limited. London, October 10, 2008.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3174151/Financial-crisis-US-stock-markets-suffer-worst-week-on-record.html
Tags: market crash 2008 | lehman brothers | foreclosure | census | financial crisis | CDS | debt | credit

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